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Post by 12thamigo on Nov 30, 2015 11:06:50 GMT
Butland mci VvD avl Bellerin SUN Simpson swa Ozil sun KdB stk Mahrez swa Sanchez* SUN Kun* stk Lukaku CRY Vardy swa McC Gosling che Ward eve Dawson TOT 2x doubtful, Silva and Moreno on wishlist, holding for now. Kane looks good as well. Really burned by my hits What's your initial line ups and thoughts? I'll post mine tomorrow. I'm tired. Off to bed. Im seriously thinking about removing Sanchez and Aguero. Sanchez > Coutinho/ Hazard / Barkley / Silva if you ship Aguero maybe. Aguero > Kane. ( Is Aguero worth the hastle especially over busy x mas period?) |
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Post by 12thamigo on Nov 30, 2015 11:31:55 GMT
Right fellow Amigo's. First things first. What a great win against a top team    . Lets keep it up. Jamaica up next. Wk 15. plans. 1FT 0.2 itb Mignolet(new) Moreno(new) Bellerin(SUN) Cedric(AVL) Sanchez(SUN)Ozil(SUN) KDB(sto) Barkley(CPY) Aguero(sto)Lukaku(CPY) Vardy(swa) McCarthy(eve) Rojo(WHM) Drinkwater(swa) Simpson(swa) 1.Looks like Sanchez has to go. Options im looking at are in order of preferance- Coutinho, Hazard, Walcott, Silva, Bolasie. Just make this change play 4-4-2 if Aguero is out. I actually am leaning towards Hazard with those fix. 2. AGUERO OUT. I know I just brought him in last week but im beginning to think that was a mistake. Have a feelingthat he will be more trouble than he is worth with his niggles. Especially over the busy x mas fix period So it could be Sanchez + Aguero > Coutinho/Hazard/Silva + Kane and play 3-4-3 benching 2 of Rojo,Cedric,Simpson |
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raddy
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Post by raddy on Nov 30, 2015 13:43:56 GMT
I would wait for news. If Sanchez is out for some time and Cout is fit, Sanc--> Cout could be a nice transfer. Silva and Haz also interesting too.
I would stick to your Aguero guns, he may not even miss Stoke, and if he does 4-4-2 looks good for this week. You have a v.nice defense.
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Post by 12thamigo on Nov 30, 2015 13:50:41 GMT
I would wait for news. If Sanchez is out for some time and Cout is fit, Sanc--> Cout could be a nice transfer. Silva and Haz also interesting too. I would stick to your Aguero guns, he may not even miss Stoke, and if he does 4-4-2 looks good for this week. You have a v.nice defense. Thanks. Im waiting on both. Not too bothered about price drops. Hazard is really tempting. |
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Post by sjaugen on Nov 30, 2015 15:23:45 GMT
I never paid attention to FPL last year, but if I remember correctly: Haz was slow starter last year as well?
He could pull a Kane, and jumpstart with those fixtures. Bournemouth's second GK got subbed with injury this weekend.
My issue is that Simpson vs Newcastle is my 3rd defender this GW, as I'm holding Dawson till the fixtures lighten up. Playing Gosling over 4-4-2. But again, seriously, bench me
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Post by 12thamigo on Nov 30, 2015 16:13:04 GMT
I had a spare hour or two this afternoon so i've done some research on this weeks matchup against Jamaica.
Just to get an idea what were up against Ive benched Daas and EpicFail from Jamaica. Of course that could change. Ive only benched them down to the expected Begovic benching and both those teams have him with no playing back up.
Jamaica are a team that dont take many hits as well.
MEXICO JAMAICA
Goalkeepers.
DDG, Mignolet
Butland x2
Defenders.
Bellerin, VVD, Skrtel, Otomendi, Souare, Simpson, Cedric
Kolarov x3, Moreno x2, Toby, Azpi, Richards, Ward
Midfielders.
KDB, Ozil, Erikson, Bolasie, Barkley
Mahrez x3, Mane, Firminho, Deulofeu
Forwards
Vardy. Ighalo x 2
Kane x3
All 12 teams from both sides have Sanchez so we kind of know where the FT is going to be spent this week.
Lateriser12 has made his and looking at the boards and how much he has itb I think he has done Sanchez > Ozil.
That eliminates our Ozil advantage.
I dont think Stoke will keep a clean sheet at Man City so our keepers should be ok.
Our worry comes with Moreno, Kolarov,Mahrez and Kane.
However we have some nice diffs in Erikson,Barkley,Bolasie,Ighalo and Vardy. which they may cover with their Sanchez out transfer.
Noticeable absentees from their squads were Coutinho, Hazard, Silva.
Do we all go one way with our transfers say Sanchez > Coutinho and try to get him as a diff or transfer in who we want?
I hope this is of some help to you guys. Its just a rough idea of what we are up against this week.
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Post by 12thamigo on Nov 30, 2015 16:15:49 GMT
If they all captain Kane and he bags a brace we could be in some trouble.
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Post by sjaugen on Nov 30, 2015 16:50:18 GMT
This is awesome 12th.
Net players + likely transfers + likely benched 4/15 + likely C + likely benched (whom).
The last two are hardest to guess/ gives the biggest variance.
I might do something similar based on your work later today
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Post by sjaugen on Nov 30, 2015 20:44:34 GMT
Net all 90 players, impact 1-5 docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h7pn84N061am8xSF2EIjIe5dTGFVMhHDjH41d0cZFZU/edit#gid=1135514858&vpid=A1Impact Net sum Mexico 5 3 4 0 3 -1 2 12 1 -13 sumproduct: 23 Talk about bullshit calcing  How to improve this logic?
*Replace impact with RTM *Remove likely benched player. This is basically multiplying by 5/6 as they have crazy homogeneous teams *Anticipate transfers: this is basically subbing Sanchez for 5xCoutinho and 1xBarkley, as they have 6x Alexis and only Firminio as Liv mids I'm not doing anything like this beyond what's here. I think 12th's method is more than sufficient as it is, since we can't draw any predictions from this. Beyond that these guys are IRL friends or similar, since they act such in cohort |
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raddy
Junior Member
Posts: 89
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Post by raddy on Nov 30, 2015 21:03:41 GMT
Holy crap, good effort guys! Haven't quite got my head round all the info yet, but looking at the spreadsheet it looks like our positive impact players are as a whole much stronger than theirs. I think as Amigo mentioned our biggest worry is Kane. Luckily I can't seem them captaining him as his fixture is quite average.
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Post by eunuchjelly on Nov 30, 2015 21:30:02 GMT
I'm not sure I understand it all either. But one thing I will say is that Daas clearly wants to start this week, and I think he should, Bego or no Bego. I agree that Kane is not a huge threat this week (obviously he could prove me wrong). Also, I already did Sanchez to Ozil. I really want to get Coutinho in as well, but I just think there is nobody on my team I want to take out for a hit. Really want Moreno, and my def is rubbish, but worried about the whole hit-for-a-defender thing.
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Post by sjaugen on Nov 30, 2015 22:05:18 GMT
My calculations were fairly rubbish. I just gave points based on my subjective impact factor, multiplied by net players to get to a score.
VVD (Ward) to Moreno (Rose) is on my transfer wish list as well
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Post by 12thamigo on Dec 1, 2015 7:07:31 GMT
AquaFresqa is considering Sanchez > Hazard(c).
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Post by 12thamigo on Dec 1, 2015 7:13:57 GMT
My calculations were fairly rubbish. I just gave points based on my subjective impact factor, multiplied by net players to get to a score. VVD (Ward) to Moreno (Rose) is on my transfer wish list as well Good work. Looks impressive but I don't understand a lot of it. its hard to predict who will be on the bench but looking at the teams, in most cases their first 11 picks themselves. I think all of them have McCarthy and Westwood. So its the defence where the variables will be. |
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Post by 12thamigo on Dec 1, 2015 7:35:57 GMT
I'm not sure I understand it all either. But one thing I will say is that Daas clearly wants to start this week, and I think he should, Bego or no Bego. I agree that Kane is not a huge threat this week (obviously he could prove me wrong). Also, I already did Sanchez to Ozil. I really want to get Coutinho in as well, but I just think there is nobody on my team I want to take out for a hit. Really want Moreno, and my def is rubbish, but worried about the whole hit-for-a-defender thing. That's fine by me. I hope I didn't seem presumptuous when benching Daas, it was just to give us an idea of what we're up against this week. Looking at his team he has some nice diffs in Ayew, Walker and Evans who all could do well anyway. Let's hope Begovic starts. Re- Sanchez > Coutinho transfer. I was using that as an example. Please don't get Coutinho in if you've already done Sanchez > Ozil(which is the best option imo) and your happy with your team. Re- Moreno. Ask yourself, Will Moreno score 4 or more than the player you would be replacing him with this week? |
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. Lets keep it up. Jamaica up next.